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Diagram showing the duration mismatch between AI data center contracts, assets, and technology cycles. A 5-year hyperscaler contract (orange bar) sits above 20+ year infrastructure (blue bar), while technology cycles (red wave) show Gen 1 air cooling, Gen 2 liquid cooling, and Gen 3 immersion cooling evolving every 2-3 years. Annotations highlight the "Renewal Cliff" at year 5 and how tech evolves faster than contracts renew.

Diagram showing the duration mismatch between AI data center contracts, assets, and technology cycles. A 5-year hyperscaler contract (orange bar) sits above 20+ year infrastructure (blue bar), while technology cycles (red wave) show Gen 1 air cooling, Gen 2 liquid cooling, and Gen 3 immersion cooling evolving every 2-3 years. Annotations highlight the "Renewal Cliff" at year 5 and how tech evolves faster than contracts renew.

Year 6 Survival Model: AI Data Center Investment Risk and Why Lease Duration Breaks the Math

What happens when a 5-year lease sits on 30-year infrastructure? The Year 6 Survival Model exposes the AI data center investment risk no one is pricing.

Tony Grayson

3 hours ago14 min read

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